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Since preparing the first draft of this book, Russia has undergone severe financial problems. Whether other countries from the FSU regard this as a setback for them too and adjust their attitudes to change remains to be seen.
I have travelled recently to Russia and a FSU country. Publishers were putting on a brave face but in many cases were more positive than many Western European publishers who constantly complain about everything.
Certainly Russia will seek to export more products using local paper, printing and publishing. Russia will be a cheap source of supply to many FSU countries. Local publishing offices may open in FSU capitals either to market Russian or local language editions. This will be either competition to or alliances for local publishing.
In Russia State printers may now feel more secure with the reassurance that privatisation and bankruptcy are no longer options that they face. They may be less willing to help private publishers. One hopes that they will co-operate with the new publishers for their own benefit too. The emergence of credit and shorter print runs may now be delayed however.
The desperate need for cash has meant that books are now on sale at very low prices in bookstalls and even cheaper prices in street markets. Such prices cannot be repeated for reprints or new editions.
Banks have proved risky business partners. Foreign banks may now be prepared to play a greater role in assisting private business. It is to be hoped that donor agencies will continue to support the private entrepreneur. Foreign investment banks are taking a very shortsighted view and cutting dramatically their exposure in all but very safe investment regions. This means great opportunities for banks and entrepreneurs prepared to accept the high risks.
Authors will not be able to demand large advances from publishers with low cash resources. Printers may also have to become more realistic in demanding upfront monies for paper or other work. One danger for publishers will be that book printers will start to export for hard currency and thus be able to hold price levels in Russia and the local markets.
Finally the book buyer. In times of adversity people revert to core needs and evaluate all their purchasing decisions. Perhaps they will realise that books are good value when compared with many more fashionable items. It is up to publishers to encourage them to think this way. If potential book buyers can still afford computers, an upsurge in electronic media can be predicted. CD’s are very cheap to manufacture, and sadly also easy to pirate. Many of the world’s largest banks and businesses have started up following periods of adversity. I hope book publishers will emerge stronger and more resilient, with their confidence in private enterprises intact.
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