The struggle for power in Tajikistan is far from over. But it should not be forgotten that during these past five years, the contenders for power concluded a peace accord and agreed to a rehabilitation plan—achievements which have eluded mediated conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia.
The international community has already played a pivotal role in bringing together the key rivals in this civil conflict. Now it must redouble its efforts to urge them to fulfill their obligations as the nation’s interim leaders. But the terms of the international engagement must be tightened to demand that the present and aspiring leaders of Tajikistan launch a new quest for a lawful society.Even if the Tajik leaders rise to this challenge, they are most likely to require the assistance of civilian law enforcement experts and trainers in human rights and the rule of law. More importantly, this technical assistance must not be directed exclusively toward national-level ministries in the capital. It must be particularly channeled to local regions, to ordinary Tajiks who are exhausted from war and displacement and who mainly wish for a job or a plot of land. Although there is not likely to be an immediate end to the political turmoil in the interim leadership, local communities must develop their own strengths in local governance and economic revival, which are ultimately essential to civic participation and respect for the rule of law. Upon such matters depends the future of Tajikistan.
Appendix One
Chronology of Events
A more detailed chronology compiled by Anthony Richter and the OSI Central Eurasia Project staff was an important source for this section.
1930s: The population from the mountainous region of Garm is forcibly moved to southern Tajikistan to create a vast cotton industry. Garmis settle in Kulob, Qurghonteppa, and Shaartuz, often in villages segregated from local Tajiks or ethnic Uzbek residents.
1950s: A second migration from Garm, much of it voluntary, boosts cotton production. Garmis adopt the south as their homeland, but nevertheless retain their regional identity and traditions. They coexist with Tajik, Uzbek, and other neighbors, with rare reports of violence.
September 1991: Tajikistan declares independence from Moscow in the wake of the failed coup attempt against Mikhail Gorbachev.
December 1991: The Soviet Union breaks into 15 independent republics.
Spring 1992: Long-running street protests in Dushanbe to dislodge leaders of the old order erupt in gunfire between government and opposition. The resignation of President Rakhman Nabiev is seen as victory for the united opposition. A coalition government is formed. Armed factions return to their native regions south of Dushanbe, and sporadic fighting continues.
Summer 1992: Opposition forces, consisting of many Garmis, clash with supporters of the deposed government in the southern districts of Kulob and Qurghonteppa.
November 1992: Government forces gain the upper hand and press across southern Tajikistan, looting and burning houses and villages belonging to people of Garmi ancestry. Garmis flee south to region bordering Afghanistan. Many are shot by armed forces on the Tajik side of the border, and many die in the attempt to cross the Pyanj River.
November 1992: UNHCR conducts a “good offices” mission to assess needs of internally displaced persons (IDPs).
December 1992: Pro-government Kulobi forces take power in Dushanbe and conduct a campaign to kill or expel people with identification from Garm or the Pamir Mountain region. All prominent members of the political opposition who are able flee to Moscow or neighboring countries. By the onset of winter, 10 percent of Tajikistan’s population has been driven into exile or uprooted within its borders. The region most severely depopulated and destroyed is Qurghonteppa in the south.1993: UNHCR establishes a mission and begins an “integrated approach” in collaboration with three UN agencies—the Department of Political Affairs, the Department of Peacekeeping Operations, and the Department of Humanitarian Affairs. Full-scale war ends in early 1993, but fighting continues sporadically between the government and opposition, as well as various regional armed gangs. Large numbers of IDPs and several thousand refugees begin to return spontaneously but meet hostility in their regions.
December 1993: UN Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali appoints a Special Representative to Tajikistan to seek a cease-fire agreement and establish a negotiation process toward a peace accord.
1994: OSCE establishes a two-person mission in Dushanbe with its traditional mandate of mediation, election monitoring and legal guidance. UNHCR continues to coordinate the overall relief effort for refugees and IDPs, as well as provide in-country protection for those who return to their homes, hoping to prevent further outbreaks of ethnic or regional violence.
1994: Three rounds of peace negotiations between the government and opposition take place under United Nations auspices while fighting heats up along the border.
1995: UNHCR declares the emergency over and phases down its operation. Most IDPs are home, and some 20,000 refugees remain in Afghanistan, mostly under control of armed Tajik opposition.UNHCR hands over the in-country protection function to OSCE, which takes over UNHCR field offices in Shaartuz, Qurghonteppa, and Dosti.
1996: Fighting between armed factions breaks out in late summer and again by year’s end. Discipline in government troops declines, and checkpoints arrest and threaten UNMOT staff. The economy has collapsed, and epidemics are breaking out. Emergency intervention by DHA is again needed.
1997: Factional fighting continues and the security of international humanitarian community deteriorates acutely in February when a renegade opposition faction takes more than a dozen hostages from UN agencies, the International Committee of the Red Cross, and Russian news media. The hostage crisis ends after two weeks, but the United Nations and many international NGOs close operations for more than two months.
June 1997: A peace agreement is signed on June 27, guaranteeing amnesty for fighters, peaceful repatriation for remaining refugees, and disarmament and demobilization of thousands of troops. Agreement stresses reconciliation and cedes 30 percent of governmental posts to opposition representatives.
July 1997: UNHCR begins successful repatriation of some 10,000 refugees still in Afghanistan. The National Reconciliation Commission, a product of the peace process, meets for first time.
August 1997: Fighting again erupts in Dushanbe and later in Qurghonteppa as a senior government commander protests a plan for accepting opposition into national forces. Government forces retaliate and drive him and his armed faction to seek sanctuary in Uzbekistan. Government forces then begin to loot cars and homes of his presumed supporters. Repatriation is temporarily suspended.
September–November 1997: Security in Dushanbe deteriorates, as several fatal explosions seem intended to disrupt implementation of the peace accord. The country’s southern tier is relatively quiet and repatriation resumes.
November 1997: The last of some 10,000 refugees are repatriated from Afghanistan without major incident. Conditions in both the south and the north are stable, but insecurity in Dushanbe is heightened by fatal hostage incident, perpetrated by a rogue opposition gang headed by Rezwon Sadirov. Sadirov, some of his followers, and one of the French hostages, are killed in a government raid.
November 24–25, 1997: International agencies, NGOs, and donor countries convene in Vienna for a conference to pledge funds to support activities aimed at implementing Tajikistan’s postwar stabilization and development plans.
December 1997: Following the death of a French aid worker, the international community cuts its staff in Tajikistan by more than half until the end of the year.
December 1997–January 1998: The United Nations steps up pressure on the Tajik transitional government to ensure greater security for international staff working there. For its part, the UN makes an inter-agency decision to consolidate staff housing and offices in Tajikistan and retain military guards from the CIS (Russian) forces.
January 1997: The head of United Tajik Opposition, Abdullo Nuri, temporarily withdraws from the peace process to protest the failure of the government side to incorporate opposition representatives into the transitional structure.
February 1998: The Tajik Islamic opposition’s controversial leader, Akbar Turadzhonzoda, returns to Dushanbe after five years, pledging to support the implementation of the peace agreement.
March 1998: More than 20 government forces are killed in continuing violence with suspected Islamic rebels about 12 miles east of the capital. An explosion strikes a building near the Tajik parliament.
July 1998: Three international UNMOT observers and their Tajik interpreter are ambushed and murdered by gunmen in territory dominated by opposition.
Appendix Two
Selected Bibliography
Atkin, Muriel. “Tajikistan: Ancient heritage, new politics,” in Nations and Politics in the Soviet Successor States, Ian Bremmer and Ray Taras, editors. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993.
Bohdan Nahaylo and Victor Swoboda, eds. Soviet Disunion: A History of the Nationalities Problem in the USSR. New York: The Free Press, 1990.
Refugees International. Tajikistan: Recommendations and Report on Refugee International’s Assessment Mission. October 1993.
Barnett R. Rubin. Russian Hegemony and State Breakdown in the Periphery: Causes and Consequences of the Civil War in Tajikistan. Paper prepared for the Carnegie Project on Political Order, Conflict and Nationalism in the Former Soviet Union, September 1995.
Roald Z. Sagdeev and Susan Eisenhower, editors. Central Asia: Conflict, Resolution and Change. Chevy Chase, MD: Center for Post-Soviet Studies Press, 1995.
United Nations Documents
International Support to Peace and Reconciliation in Tajikistan, September 1997. Prepared by the Inter-agency Task Force of UN agencies, Funds and Programmes working in Tajikistan, the Bretton Woods institutions, SCE, IOM, and NGOs.
United Nations Consolidated Inter-Agency Donor Alert on Urgent Humanitarian Needs in Tajikistan: 1 Dec 1996–31 May 1997. New York: United Nations DHA, November 1996.
Emergency Programme Tajikistan: 1993–1995. New York: United Nations DHA, September 1996.UN DHA Situation Reports on Tajikistan, 1997.
UNHCR Report on Tajikistan: January 1993-March 1996. Geneva, May 1996.
OSCE Documents
Arne Clemens Seifert. “Tajikistan: Post-conflict peace-building and national consensus,” in OSCE-ODIHR Bulletin, Fall 1997, Vol. 5, No 3. pp 7-9.
OSCE. “The OSCE Mission to Tajikistan,” (updated Feb 1997), from OSCE Website.
OSCE. Monthly Activity reports—Tajikistan, 1997.
Human Rights Reports
Human Rights Watch/Helsinki. Return to Tajikistan: Continued Regional and Ethnic Tensions, May 1995.
Human Rights Watch/Helsinki. Tajik Refugees in Northern Afghanistan, May 1996.
Human Rights Watch/Helsinki. Human Rights in Tajikistan: In the Wake of Civil War, December 1993.
Donor Documents
USAID. Congressional Presentation for Fiscal Year 1997. Tajikistan. Assistance to the NIS request: $5,000,000 Web version.
ASSESSMENTS. Web versions, 1997.
Media Reports
New York Times, Reuters, Agence France-Presse, RFE/RL Daily Reports.
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